Hamilton by-election: The SNP's desperate strategy shows it is a party out of ideas

The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election was, we were repeatedly told, a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform. It never was. Comparisons were drawn with Hamilton 1967 and Winnie Ewing’s sensational victory. That was always absurd. Anas Sarwar’s coat was, it was speculated, on a shoogly peg. A case of mistaken coat and leader perhaps.

Davy Russell’s win for Labour has shattered John Swinney’s strategy of talking up Reform’s support to divert disgruntled voters away from Labour to divide the opposition. It was a desperate strategy from a party with a poor record in office that has run out of time.

Swinney’s second period as SNP leader looks little different from his first. Back then he was a decent man who was out of his depth as leader of the SNP. His effort to boost Reform now leaves him simply looking out of his depth. 

But he will remain leader as there is no obvious credible alternative and certainly not in the Scottish Cabinet. If the SNP was not in such dire straits then Swinney would be out but they have nobody else to turn to. The SNP have a record of calling previous leaders back into service but even in its current state the SNP would surely not ask Nicola Sturgeon, the principal source of its current problems, to come back and save the party. Then again, parties have been known to do daft things in desperate times.

From cursory observations of the media, an inordinate amount of ministerial time was spent campaigning in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. This encapsulates the SNP’s central problem. The SNP neglected governing at the expense of campaigning but not just during this by-election. That tendency reaches back many years.

South Lanarkshire mirrored Scotland as a whole in the 2014 independence referendum, with Yes winning 45 per cent of the vote on 85 per cent turnout. The SNP was unable to come close to capturing that vote in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Assuming that support for independence remains around that level – though we need to adopt a much more sceptical approach to polling – the SNP has lost significant ground amongst what should be its core vote.

It is difficult to assess Reform’s likely performance next year based on the by-election result.  It could hardly have asked for more coverage these past few weeks. It is doubtful if the coverage attacking the party did anything other than bring it much-needed attention. The people who shared the outrage of sections of the media were never likely to vote for Reform anyway. But being presented as if it was the main challenger to the SNP was a gift to Reform that it will not receive next year. Indeed, it may be underestimated as a reaction to the over-hype of this by-election.

Reform’s 26 per cent, combined with a turnout of only 44 per cent, should not be ignored. This a significant body of disgruntled and disillusioned people. Many will have voted SNP in the past. These are not people likely to turn to the SNP over the next year – the SNP has little hope of making good on its many promises at this late stage and these understandably disgruntled people crave change.

The by-election has made it abundantly clear that Labour is the challenger to the SNP as the governing party. Its job is far from done. Voters are now more sceptical than in the recent past, even more cynical. They have had enough of empty speeches, hollow promises, hype and spin. Labour needs to offer hope, not hype, backed by a serious programme for government.