James Mitchell: The SNP is losing some of its core support as voters seek answers elsewhere

There have always been a number of strands to SNP support. Its core vote is found amongst independence supporters. It added a strand to this core by claiming to be the only party able to stand up for Scotland. Since devolution it has also had the potential to present itself as competent in government. Those three strands, with varying strengths over time, have made up the SNP vote.

Support for independence had been relatively static with occasional peaks and troughs – pretty much marked by a trendless fluctuation. It needed the additional strands of standing up for Scotland and competence to win big.

Until a decade ago it was common for SNP support to exceed independence support. In 2011 independence support was well behind ‘more powers’ and the status quo, having flatlined between 2007 and 2011, and was very well behind SNP support. What provided the SNP’s 2011 overall majority was the combination of the independence base plus a large boost in support amongst those who perceived the SNP as having stood up for Scotland and who believed it had proven competent in government. This resulted in a significant SNP-independence gap in support.

Between 2007 and 2011, the SNP had gone out of its way to avoid fights with London and develop a nuanced, mature relationship with it. The strategy involved a two-stage process – convert voters to the SNP as a competent party standing up for Scotland, and then convert those converts to independence. This latter osmosis was never clearly explained and operated more as a matter of faith, but the independence referendum result seems to have borne out the strategy.

There is little evidence, despite heroic efforts to the contrary, that independence support was gradually growing as older voters, more hostile to independence, were dying off and replaced by younger, more sympathetic voters. Had the generational myth had any substance then support for independence would have steadily grown. The assumption has been articulated in nationalist circles since the 1970s and has an obvious appeal to nationalists. It has bred complacency and neglect of the other strands in SNP support.

We now have the phenomenon of the SNP losing support amongst what ought to be its core. The independence-SNP gap has been reversed. Support for independence is now well ahead of support for the SNP. This appears counter-intuitive. The SNP’s core ought not to exceed support for the SNP.

One possible explanation is that the Greens and Alba are taking a share of independence support, but even if true that does not fully explain the gap. Another likely explanation is that polls now exaggerate independence support. Those who say they want independence include a significant proportion who are in no hurry to see its achievement and are probably lukewarm about it. Some may find it easy to tell pollsters they support independence knowing a referendum is nowhere in sight as a useful way of registering protest. But again, inflated support does not offer a complete answer. 

The likeliest explanation is that the SNP has lost support amongst those who have seen ‘standing up for Scotland’ degenerate into exploiting, exaggerating and escalating every difference with London. Plus, even the Scottish Government’s most ardent supporters have to admit that its record on improving outcomes is disappointing. Measured against the party’s hype and promises, it has been lamentable.

It had been much easier to build a reputation for competence before it had much of a record to defend. Promises could be made with relative impunity. Expectations of what the SNP would do when it was first elected in 2007 had been pretty low, even amongst its own voters. Its opponents had issued such dire warnings that made the SNP’s performance look outstanding by 2011.

There comes a point when delivering on promises is required to maintain a reputation for competence. This is doubly problematic given the legacy of over-hyped promises. Expectations were cranked up by SNP leaders over the last decade, making even modest achievements look like failures. And the tendency to blame everyone else for failures has worn thin.

This left the SNP vulnerable in last year’s UK general election despite the stronger independence base. What is now proving the SNP’s best hope of victory next year is a divided opposition, as there is little prospect of delivering on its promises. Reform has come to the SNP’s rescue as voters have become disappointed with Labour, the only party with any real prospect of dislodging the SNP from office. But Reform may prove much the same as the SNP in pre-devolution years – a party capable of causing the odd by-election shock but falling back at subsequent general elections. The question then will be whether those who are now disaffected return to Labour.